Courtesy of iii.org
Hurricane researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) predict an above-average Atlantic Hurricane Season 2021, citing the likely absence of El Niño as a primary factor. El Niño tend to increase westerly winds at the upper levels across the Caribbean to the tropical Atlantic and tear apart hurricanes as they try to form.
The tropical meteorology project team at CSU, led by Triple-I researcher Dr Phil Klotzbach, predicts 17 named storms during hurricane season 2021.
Of these, researchers expect eight to be hurricanes and four reach high hurricane strength (Sapphire / Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 1
An average season has 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
The hurricane season 2021, which runs from June 1 to November 30, follows a record-breaking season 2020. The team expects hurricane activity in 2021 to be approximately 140 percent of the average season. By comparison, 2020's hurricane activity was about 170 percent of the average season. The 2020 hurricane season had six continental hurricanes in the United States, including Category 4 Hurricane Laura, which hit southwest Louisiana.
To date, the 2021 hurricane season has characteristics similar to 1996, 2001, 2008, 2011 and 2017. "All of our analogous seasons had hurricane activities above the Atlantic on average, 1996 and 2017 were extremely active seasons," says Klotzbach.
The report also includes the probability of major hurricanes landing :
• 69 percent for the entire U.S. coastline (the average for the last century is 52 percent)
• 45 percent for the United States: East Coast including the Florida Peninsula (average for last century is 31 percent)
• 44 percent for the Gulf Coast from Florida Handles west to Brownsville (average for last century is 30 percent)
• 58 percent for the Caribbean (average for it last century is 42 percent)
As always warns Dr. Klotzbach coastal residents to take appropriate precautions because "it only takes one storm near you to make it an active season."