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Triple-I Blog | Triple-I / Milliman Groundhog Day Report Project Insurers' Growth, Profits 2021



By Loretta Worters, Vice President, Media Relations, Triple-I

A pandemic, civil unrest, and weather-related disasters affected the U.S. real estate / accident insurance industry in 2020, but not for

Few predict a repeat of 2020 events , but new forecasts from the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) and Milliman envisage strong premium growth for 2021

with an insurance result comparable to last year. [19659003] Despite countless challenges, US car, homeowners and commercial insurance companies are expected to realize a modest 1.9 percent growth in net premiums and to book a total quota of 98.9 by the end of 2020, according to Triple-I and Milliman. This year, net premiums increase by 6.1 percent, and the total share improves slightly to 98.5, the two organizations' projects. Net written-off premiums are premiums written after reinsurance transactions. The combined ratio is the percentage of each premium dollar that a P / C insurance company spends on receivables and expenses.

"We feel that the year ended surprisingly well, given the difficult circumstances in which the industry found itself," said James Lynch, FCAS, Senior Vice President and Chief Actuary, Triple-I. "We calculate a small insurance result in 2020, quite similar to 2019. We calculate similar results over the next two years."

The forecasts for the end of 2020, together with those for this and next year, were presented in a triple – I only participate in webinar on February 2, "Triple-I / Milliman Underwriting Projections 2021-2022: Groundhog Day Edition," moderated by Triple-I CEO Sean Kevelighan. , Triple-I and Milliman were forecast, as the tough market for commercial lines will increase exposure growth from the economic recovery. Panelists also predicted continued insurance gains until 2022, with forecasts for several major industries.

"Economists expect growth to improve this year and next, which will stimulate growth in exposures across most lines," said Jason B. Kurtz, FCAS, MAAA, a principal and consulting actuary at Milliman, a independent risk management, utility and technology companies.

Kurtz noted, however, that recent signs of a slowdown "apply – retail sales fell in December, adjusted for the season and new unemployment claims remain stubbornly high. So it may delay growth, as well as the spread of the so-called coronavirus variant, which the CDC expects will dominate the cases in the spring. ”

During the webinar, Dr. Michel Léonard, CBE, Vice President and Senior Economist, Triple-I, gave a preliminary look at the financial results of the P / C insurance industry for the third quarter of 2020.

US P / C insurers showed a profitable development during the third quarter of 2020, even when the industry's net profit fell by 26 percent for the second quarter in a row, according to Dr. Léonard. ”Even though it was below the ten-year average, it was stronger overall than expected given the structurally low interest rates and stock market volatility. "

Léonard concluded: "Cautious asset management and sound insurance practices ensured continued financial stability even as we faced a uniquely challenging year and delivered our contribution to systemic financial stability and commitment for policyholders."

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