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Home / Insurance / Triple-I Blog | Triple-I and Milliman forecast: commercial and personal car and worker comp

Triple-I Blog | Triple-I and Milliman forecast: commercial and personal car and worker comp



By Loretta Worters, Vice President, Media Relations, Triple-I

During an exclusive Groundhog Day webinar presented to Triple-I members of Triple-I and Milliman, experts spoke about what the insurance industry can expect in 2021

Editor of Car Insurance Report Brian Sullivan looked at both personal and commercial car insurance. "During the first nine months, private passenger liability decreased by less than two percent, but losses decreased by more than 14 percent with loss ratios likely to be in the mid-1950s."

On the commercial side, Sullivan noted that commercial car trends are not as strong as those for personal lines. “Things have gotten better in terms of losses, but not so much better; certainly nothing like a car, ”said Sullivan.

Jeff Eddinger, Head of Division at the National Council for Compensation Insurance (NCCI), looked early on at the 2020 results for workers' compensation insurance. "The pandemic has landed the US economy in a recession. Significant jobs in combination with changes in wage and interest rates have put pressure on premiums. NCCI estimates that the private operator's net premium will fall by about 8 percent by 2020. ”

Eddinger noted that when the virus began to spread in 2020, it also raised concerns that COVID claims could overwhelm the system. "Fortunately, that has not turned out to be the case. At the same time, there has been a reduction in non-COVID receivables, partly due to more remote work and less work-related driving. To date, losses incurred have decreased by approximately 8 percent, in line with the reduction in the total premium. As a result, the estimated total calendar year for 2020 is almost unchanged from 2019 to 86. This would be the seventh year in a row with a guaranteed profit for labor compensation. "

The industry is financially strong but continues to face uncertainty," Eddinger warned. "Vaccine rollout has begun, but new cases of the virus in the United States have risen to record levels. In addition to COVID claims, industry leaders are concerned about regulatory activities related to assumptions, the economic downturn and the long-term effects of working from home, says Eddinger.

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