The overall ratio in 2022 for the property and casualty insurance industry is expected to deteriorate to 105.6% from 99.5% in 2021, according to a report from the Insurance Information Institute on Thursday.
The decline in underwriting performance was driven by Hurricane Ian and “significant deterioration in the passenger car line, making it the worst year for the P&C industry since 2011,” the report said.
Underwriting losses are expected for the commercial multiperil line, for which 2022 total cost is expected to deteriorate to 107.6%, 1.4 percentage points higher than 2021, according to Jason B. Kurtz, principal and consulting actuary at consulting and actuarial firm Milliman Inc. Premium growth of 14.5% is forecast in 2022, after growth of 17.4% in 2021, he said.
The overall ratio in 2022 for commercial auto lines is expected to be 104.7%, nearly 6 percentage points worse than in 2021, according to Dave Moore, president of Moore Actuarial Consulting LLC. “We forecast insurance losses for 2023 to 2024 due to inflation, both social inflation and economic inflation, loss pressure and prior year negative loss trends,” he said. “Premium growth is expected to remain high due to tough market conditions.”
Overall insurance premium growth for the property/casualty industry is expected to increase 8.8% in 2022 and 8.9% in 2023, primarily due to difficult market conditions, according to Dale Porfilio, the institute’s director of underwriting.
Loss pressure and a tough market are expected to continue due to inflation, supply chain disruptions and geopolitical risks, the institute said in a statement.
“Rising interest rates will have a chilling impact on underlying growth across P&C lines, from residential to commercial real estate and autos,” Michel Léonard, chief economist and data scientist for the institute, said in the statement. “2023 is poised to be another year of historic volatility. Persistently high inflation, the threat of a recession and rising unemployment top our list of economic risks.”
Looking at the workers’ compensation line, Kurtz noted that underwriting gains continue, although margins are expected to shrink through 2024. “The workers’ compensation line continues to stand alone, with its multi-year streak of strong insurance profitability forecast to continue for 2022 and into 2023-2024.”