Much has been written about the possibility for drivers without a car to revolutionize transport, with many claiming that the revolution will happen soon . But there are also lots of naysayers who claim it's a big hype.
Then there are some quieter, more collected heads out there, which take a more measured attitude when it comes to the potential of self-driving cars.  One such expert is Chunka Mui, who wrote an excellent three-part analysis on the future of drivers without cars in Forbes Leadership Strategy in November.
"In order for AV to revolutionize transport, they must reach a high level of industrialization and adoption. They must enable, as a first step, robust, relatively inexpensive Uber-like services in cities and suburbs," he writes. "In the longer term, the AV: must be robust enough to enable personal ownership and challenge the personal-owned, human cars."
In the series, Mui describes four categories of barriers to industrialization: scaling, trust, market sustainability and secondary effects.
"It's not enough for developers and manufacturers to believe that their AV files are good enough for widespread use, they have to convince others," he writes. "To do this, they must overcome three major obstacles: independent verification and validation, standardization and regulation and general acceptance."
For Mui, the revolutionary potential of drivers without a car is clear, but a broad adoption is not close. [1
I couldn't agree with more, and I'm curious to see how the next petrol marathon will form in 2019.
If you'd like to learn more, read my Ultimate Guide to Self-Driving Cars .