Colorado State University said Thursday it expects the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season to be slightly less active than average when it released its original forecast.
The forecast calls for 13 named storms, compared to an average of 14.4 from 1991 to 2020. Named storm days are forecast for 55, compared to an average of 69.4.
Six hurricanes are forecast, compared to an average of 7.2, and hurricane days are estimated at 25, compared to an average of 27.0.
Two major hurricanes are forecast with five major hurricane days, compared to 3.2 and 7.4, respectively.
Scientists cited the likely development of El Niño as a primary factor in their below-average forecast but noted an elevated uncertainty due to the behavior of meteorological indicators.
“Given the conflicting signals between a potentially robust El Niño and an abnormally warm tropical and subtropical Atlantic, the team emphasizes that there is more uncertainty than normal with this outlook,”
; the CSU report’s summary said, adding “there is considerable uncertainty about how strong El Niño would be if it develops.”Source link
