Risk Management Solutions Inc., a Moody’s Analytics firm, on Friday estimated insured losses from Hurricane Ian at between $53 billion and $74 billion, with a best estimate of $67 billion.
The estimate includes wind and storm surge losses in Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia and Virginia, based on an analysis of ensemble footprints in version 21 of the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models. The estimate also includes impacts from rainfall-induced inland flooding in the same regions, using footprints in the RMS US Inland Flood HD Model, it said in a statement.
The Newark, Calif.-based disaster modeler’s estimates are of the same order of magnitude as those from CoreLogic also published Friday.
RMS expects the majority of total insured losses from Ian to be wind driven with a still significant portion, up to 25%, of total insured losses driven by flood and inundation. Insured wind losses and losses to the National Flood Insurance Program will be driven by residential lines while flood and inland losses will be dominated by commercial, industrial and automotive lines, RMS said.
The figures reflect losses from property damage, contents and business interruption; across residential, commercial, industrial, automotive, infrastructure, personal watercraft and other specialties. The estimate also takes into account the effects of post-event loss amplification, inflation and non-modeled sources such as benefit allocation and litigation.
Rajkiran Vojjala, vice president of model development at RMS, said in the statement that a significant portion of the losses from Ian will be associated with post-event loss amplification and inflationary trends.
The RMS also estimates that the NFIP could see an additional $10 billion in losses from storm surge and inland flooding as a result of the event. Implementation of the NFIP policy is significant in many coastal areas affected by Ian, up to 50%, according to the RMS, areas hit hard by inland flooding in the event that they typically have less than 10% NFIP participation, the RMS said
Mohsen Rahnama, director of risk modeling at RMS, called the storm “a historic and complex event that will reshape Florida’s insurance market for years to come,” in the statement.
Ian made landfall near Cayo Costa, Florida, on September 28 as a strong Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The storm produced sustained winds of 150 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Ian was the ninth named storm of the 2022 North Atlantic hurricane season, the fourth hurricane and the first named storm to make landfall in the United States this season.