March 21, 2020, I started tracking COVID – specifically the daily numbers. I started this task for several reasons: I like data, I did not go anywhere for a while, but more specifically so that I could discuss it in an intelligent way.
Clearly discernible trends have emerged in the last seven months. "Waves", as some call them, are clearly visible in the charts.
In this white paper I want to provide the charts that have evolved from my nightly tracking. No conclusions are drawn, no comments are given and no opinion is given. This is pure data for the sake of data. You have to draw your own conclusions, give your own comment and develop your own opinion.
As I said, the information used to develop these charts has been tracked and recorded NIGHTLY since March 21
Since one day is not a trend, these charts apply the rolling average of 14 days. Using a 14-day average removes the extreme peaks and troughs found in daily bills and even the peaks found in a 7-day rolling average. When this 14-day rolling average is NOT used, the description of the chart indicates that another method is applied.
The time period traced in these charts is the slightly more seven-month period between March 21 and October 31.  The only comment I provide is a description of what information is shown in the diagram.
Shall we start? I hope you find this information interesting if it is not valuable.
Daily new cases
This charts the daily number of cases, again based on a rolling average of 14 days.
 Daily Deaths
The following chart shows daily deaths with a 14-day moving average.
This maps daily mortality. The death rate presented in this chart is calculated by dividing the number of deaths on a given day by the number of new cases for that day. Although it is not an exact indication of rolling mortality, as this chart uses the rolling average of 14 days of falls and deaths, it is somewhat representative of the actual mortality rate.
Below is the 14-day rolling recovery average.
New cases compared to recycling
Two data points are compared in the following diagram: 1) the daily new cases; and 2) the daily recoveries. The daily new cases are represented by the blue line and the orange line tracks recoveries. Again, they use the 14-day rolling averages.
Three important data points are compared in the following diagrams: 1) Total reported cases; 2) Total recoveries; and 3) Totally active. Unlike previous charts, this chart does NOT use a rolling average of 14 days – this shows actual daily figures.
The blue line is total reported cases; the gray tracks active cases; and the orange indicates recoveries.
US share of total deaths
According to WorldOMeter, COVID has affected 216 countries and territories – indeed worldwide. The United States accounts for about 4.29% of the world's population. This chart tracks the proportion of COVID deaths worldwide in the United States.
Below are three charts that provide monthly information rather than a 14-day rolling average or even a daily chart of numbers. The following diagram compares new cases, new deaths and new recoveries for the months of April to October.
Monthly new cases
Monthly new deaths
New recoveries every month 19659002]
This last chart is essentially a trace of the total COVID numbers from 21 March to 31 October. This chart compares all figures with the US population. The applicable color codes are:
- Dark blue: US population
- Red / orange: Total number of reported cases
- Yellow: Total number of recoveries
- Gray: Active cases
- Light blue: Total number of deaths  The most important insurance news in your inbox every working day.
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