Moody’s Investors Service Inc. said Monday that its Moody’s RMS catastrophe modeling unit predicts a near-normal North Atlantic hurricane season as “most likely.”
The North Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30.
The disaster modeler attributed its forecast of a near-normal hurricane season to key factors such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and above-average North Atlantic sea surface temperatures.
The report noted that both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Colorado State University, known for its hurricane expertise, have predicted five to nine hurricanes for the season. NOAA sees one to four major hurricanes, while CSU predicts two to five.
The report noted differences in the accuracy of various forecasts. For Colorado State University, the observed hurricane number fell within its forecast range 61% of the time from 1995 to 2022. NOAA fared less well, with the observed hurricane number falling within its forecast range 50% of the time from 2001 to 2022.
The Moody’s RMS report also noted two forecasts for the western North Pacific typhoon season, which runs throughout the calendar year, although most activity typically occurs between May and November.
Tropical Storm Risk predicts that activity in the western North Pacific basin this year will be above average, with about 29 tropical storms, 19 of which are predicted to intensify into typhoons.
The European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts predicts that 17 to 24 tropical storms will develop in the western North Pacific basin between June and November, with 10 to 14 developing into typhoons.