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KCC releases a wildfire model responsible for climate change



Karen Clark & ​​Co. released on Tuesday a high-resolution American wildfire model that describes the effects of climate change and provides a picture of future loss potential.

The model shows that insurance companies can suffer a loss of over $ 30 billion from an extreme fire in California, and they should be prepared for losses in excess of $ 10 billion with a significant probability based on current exposures and climatic conditions, KCC said: s vd Karen Clark.

The model includes probability curves for overruns, probable maximum losses and average annual losses down to the site level and can be used to develop insurance and pricing strategies, the Boston-based disaster model said in a statement.

Version 1

.0 describes various atmospheric variables including vapor pressure deficits, which is the capacity of an air mass to retain moisture beyond what is available in the atmospheric environment. The model also takes into account high-resolution fuel data, topography, wind speeds, road density, suppressive activities and other factors that affect the speed and direction of fire spread, says KCC.

Several secondary building features and limiting functions are also included.

Insurers licensing the model will also have access to KCC's live event process for monitoring fires as they spread and spread, says KCC.

The model presents nine climate change scenarios that reflect the potential for forest fire losses in 2025, 2030 and 2050, as well as data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

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