Verisk Inc.’s Extreme Event Solutions catastrophe modeling unit, formerly AIR Worldwide, said Tuesday that industry insured losses for the Feb. 6 earthquakes in Turkey are likely to exceed $1 billion and total economic losses could exceed $20 billion.
The estimates are based on the effects of both earthquakes, magnitude 7.8 and then 7.5, that occurred that day, although Verisk said its results indicate that the initial shock is the cause of most of the insured losses.
Verisk’s modeled estimates of insured losses include damage from earthquakes; caused insured physical damage to property on land, both structures and their contents; and loss of use protection such as business interruption.
Modeled estimates of insured losses do not include such things as losses due to fire following, condensation or sprinkler leakage; losses to infrastructure; and losses from hazardous waste cleanup, vandalism or civil disturbances, either directly or indirectly caused by the event.
The 7.8-magnitude earthquake was caused by faults at a shallow depth, it said in a statement. Nine hours after the first earthquake, a second quake of magnitude 7.5 occurred.
Since 1900, approximately 12 earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 and above and one event of magnitude 6.0 and above have occurred in Turkey each year. Severe examples include the 1939 magnitude 7.9 Izmit earthquake, the 1999 magnitude 7.5 Izmit earthquake, and the 1999 magnitude 7.2 Düzce earthquake, according to Verisk.
Similar loss estimates were made on Monday.