U.S. Growth in the real estate and claims sector is expected to increase by 2021, as the industry's overall share is expected to decline only modestly, according to a report Thursday from A.M. Best & Co.
While Best sees only a 1.8% increase in net premiums written for 2020 after a 3.4% increase in 2019, the credit rating agency sees net premiums jump 4.6% in 2021.
"We expect the commercial the line's pricing environment should remain fixed, with even labor compensation with some minor increases ", said Best of 2021.
The industry's total share is expected to rise one tenth of a point to 99.3 by 2020 but then see a larger bump to 99.8% 2021
The combination ratio for 2020 includes a 3.4-point increase from catastrophic losses, which was offset by factors such as declining loss rates in personal and commercial cars and "solid" price improvement across most commercial lines, Best said.
"In balance, the improved results for personal and commercial compensation for cars and workers, which together account for more than half of the industry's net contributions, more than compensated for the effect of higher disaster losses," said Best, adding that it expects " a recovery in accident rate and severity is likely for most industries by 2021. "
The return on investment continues to plague the insurance industry and remains anemic in 2020 and 2021," said Best.
Investment rates are expected to improve modestly in 2021 to 2.8%, from 2.7% in 2020. Falling bond yields in early 2020 when COVID-19 emerged globally is likely to lead to a 9% decline in industry net investment to $ 52 from $ 57. $ 3 billion 2019.
A modest improvement in returns expected in 2021, combined with an increase in invested assets, is expected to push back net investment up to approximately $ 57 billion in 2021.
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